Aspen Mountain
CO · 11,212 ft summit · ASE
NWS Grade
2025–26 Season Snapshot
Storms This Season
30
storms tracked
Season Snowfall
50"
calibrated total
Best Storm
36/100
Tracked
Current Snowpack
10"
542:CO:SNTL
Avg Daily Rate
1.7"/day
storms with data
Season SWE
4.4"
snow water equivalent
NWS Forecast Accuracy
Good news — NWS underestimates snowfall here by -75%
Aspen Mountain typically receives 3.8× the NWS forecast amount. When NWS says 6 inches, you should expect closer to 23 inches. StormDrop calibrated estimates account for this.
Only 2 storms, both on same date (2026-03-15) with nearly identical conditions. Strong underprediction bias suggests NWS model may be calibrated for lower elevations or may not account for Aspen's orographic/elevation-specific snow production. Sample size is very small; pattern should be validated with additional storms before operational deployment.
Based on 2 verified storms · SNOTEL ground truth (542:CO:SNTL)
Storm History — 2025–26 Season
Apr 17 – Apr 18
NWS Forecast
1.1"
Calibrated
2.2"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Dense
Rate: 2.2"/day
Apr 17 – Apr 17
NWS Forecast
0.7"
Calibrated
1.4"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Dense
Rate: 1.4"/day
Apr 15 – Apr 15
NWS Forecast
0.1"
Calibrated
0.2"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Dense
Rate: 0.2"/day
Show 27 more storms
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 2" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 3" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 4" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Local Knowledge
TGR Community IntelStorm Day Strategy
Aspen responds well to storm cycles; little dumps paint the mountain white but can camouflage rocks. Small snowfalls are beneficial. During heavy storms (e.g., Winter Storm Warnings), expect difficult travel conditions and plan accordingly. Post-storm, DD runs open gradually with plenty of untracked terrain available. Storm timing affects lift lines—strategically fewer after major dumps.
Terrain Opening Patterns
Highlands
Opens: First lifts of season
Opens before full Aspen terrain. AVSC race groups stationed here starting late December
Ruthies and FIS
Opens: Mid-December
FIS terrain opens during race season
Powder Stashes
Sneaky's area
Snowmass
Can have good powder stashes but highly dependent on recent snow and grooming
Main skin route
Aspen Mountain main face
Patrol actively shovels sideline snow onto Ridge to cover dirt. Not recommended on thin cover days
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Based on 229 community reports · 2018-01-04 → 2026-03-09
Road & Access
CO-82 / Independence Pass / Aspen
OpenHistorical Patterns
Temperature effect: Both storms occurred in identical temp range (3.6–28.0°F, avg 12.6°F); insufficient data to isolate temperature effect, but mild average temps with wide daily swing may favor light density precipitation that NWS underestimates in volume.
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