Timberline Lodge
OR · 8,540 ft summit · PDX
NWS Grade
2025–26 Season Snapshot
Storms This Season
210
storms tracked
Season Snowfall
462"
calibrated total
Best Storm
20/100
Epic
Current Snowpack
45"
651:OR:SNTL
Avg Daily Rate
1.2"/day
storms with data
Season SWE
18.3"
snow water equivalent
NWS Forecast Accuracy
NWS overpredicts by 86.15% at Timberline Lodge
Our calibrated estimates are based on 4 verified storms. When NWS says 12 inches, reality is closer to 2 inches. Don't book flights based on NWS numbers alone.
NWS forecasts for Timberline Lodge exhibit severe magnitude bias with 86% mean error. Actual/forecast ratio of 0.14 suggests either: (1) NWS model outputs significantly exceed ground truth at this elevation/exposure, (2) SNOTEL station 651 is subject to wind-induced measurement loss, or (3) systematic sublimation/redistribution occurs post-deposition. Conservative adjustment: multiply all NWS snowfall forecasts by 0.14–0.25 depending on magnitude and snow level. With only 4 storms, patterns are preliminary.
Based on 4 verified storms · SNOTEL ground truth (651:OR:SNTL)
Storm History — 2025–26 Season
Apr 15 – Apr 17
NWS Forecast
16.3"
Calibrated
2.3"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Light
Rate: 1.6"/day
Apr 15 – Apr 17
NWS Forecast
17.1"
Calibrated
2.4"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Light
Rate: 1.6"/day
Apr 15 – Apr 17
NWS Forecast
17.6"
Calibrated
2.5"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Average
Rate: 1.7"/day
Show 207 more storms
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 5" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 5" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 5" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 5" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 17
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 16
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 15
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 15
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 15
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 15
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 15
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 15
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 15
Level 3 · 4" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 11
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 11
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 11
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 11
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 11
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 2" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 3 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 2" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 2 · 3" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 30 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 29 – Mar 30
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 26 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 25 – Mar 26
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 26
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 21 – Mar 21
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 21 – Mar 21
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 11 – Mar 14
Level 3 · 10" calibrated
Mar 10 – Mar 13
Level 4 · 11" calibrated
Road & Access
No live DOT road data available for Timberline Lodge.
Historical Patterns
Temperature effect: Average temperatures near freezing (30.6–32.0°F) show no protective effect against overprediction. Warmer periods (31.5°F avg with 43°F highs) produce complete forecast failure on marginal events.
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