Arapahoe Basin
CO · 13,050 ft summit · DEN
NWS Grade
2025–26 Season Snapshot
Storms This Season
161
storms tracked
Season Snowfall
35"
calibrated total
Best Storm
10/100
Tracked
Current Snowpack
34"
Loveland Basin (existing) + Grizzly Peak
Avg Daily Rate
0.3"/day
storms with data
Season SWE
11.0"
snow water equivalent
NWS Forecast Accuracy
NWS overpredicts by 100% at Arapahoe Basin
Our calibrated estimates are based on 7 verified storms. When NWS says 12 inches, reality is closer to 0 inches. Don't book flights based on NWS numbers alone.
Critical observation: SNOTEL depth actually decreased or held flat (42.0→41.0 inches) across the March 15–16 cluster despite multiple snowfall forecasts, suggesting the station experienced net ablation. NWS model may be producing systematic false precipitation or the Arapahoe Basin SNOTEL site (602:CO:SNTL) may be in a wind-scoured exposure zone where forecast model precipitation does not accumulate. Recommend validating against nearby manual observations or alternative measurement sites for March 2026 period.
Based on 7 verified storms · SNOTEL ground truth (Loveland Basin (existing) + Grizzly Peak)
Storm History — 2025–26 Season
Apr 17 – Apr 18
NWS Forecast
5.1"
Calibrated
0.5"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Average
Rate: 0.4"/day
Apr 17 – Apr 17
NWS Forecast
2.0"
Calibrated
0.2"
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Average
Rate: 0.2"/day
Apr 15 – Apr 15
NWS Forecast
0.1"
Calibrated
—
Actual (SNOTEL)
Pending
Density: Ultra-Light
Show 158 more storms
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 15 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 14 – Apr 15
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 13 – Apr 14
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 12 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 11 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 10 – Apr 10
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 10 – Apr 10
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 10 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 10 – Apr 12
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 10 – Apr 10
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 9 – Apr 10
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 9 – Apr 10
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 9 – Apr 10
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 9 – Apr 10
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 9 – Apr 10
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 9 – Apr 10
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 9 – Apr 9
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 8 – Apr 9
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 7 – Apr 8
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 7 – Apr 8
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 7 – Apr 8
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 7 – Apr 8
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 7 – Apr 8
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 7 – Apr 8
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 7 – Apr 8
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 6 – Apr 7
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 3 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 2 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 4
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Apr 1 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 3
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 2
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 31 – Apr 1
Level 2 · 1" calibrated
Mar 27 – Mar 27
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 27 – Mar 27
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 27 – Mar 27
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 27 – Mar 27
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 27 – Mar 27
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 27 – Mar 27
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 27 – Mar 27
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 24 – Mar 24
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 23 – Mar 23
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 22 – Mar 23
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 17 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 17 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 17 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 17 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 16 – Mar 17
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 15
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Mar 15 – Mar 16
Level 1 · 1" calibrated
Mar 11 – Mar 11
Level 1 · 0" calibrated
Local Knowledge
TGR Community IntelStorm Day Strategy
A-Basin excels on storm days with soft conditions and multiple top-to-bottom laps possible. Post-storm mornings offer best conditions for powder-focused skiing. Directed skiing opens high-consequence terrain (Radical, Exo, Pali) for limited windows. Storm timing matters significantly - January storms showed 'soft chop in parks' within hours of conditions. Monitor patrol staffing and avalanche control status; early season (December) operations severely limited by natural snowbase requiring accumulation events. Holiday crowd avoidance critical - consider driving westward or visiting weekdays during holiday periods. Storm forecast directly impacts terrain availability; long-range forecasts showing 'all rock skis' recommend patience or travel to higher-elevation areas.
Terrain Opening Patterns
Zuma Cornice
Opens: Variable, storm-dependent
Opened after January 13 storm
Steep Gullies
Opens: Limited openings, storm-dependent
Similar difficulty to 1st/2nd Notch hike-to spots
Powder Stashes
The Beavers
Accessible via hike from main terrain
Hike-out is effective crowd deterrent. Traverse not severely tracked early season.
Off-groomer terrain throughout Basin
Tree and gully areas
Most skiers stay on groomed runs; trees stay fresher longer.
Full local intelligence for Arapahoe Basin
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Based on 855 community reports · 2018-01-01 → 2026-03-17
Road & Access
I-70 Corridor (Eisenhower Tunnel to Vail)
OpenHistorical Patterns
Temperature effect: Temperatures in range 1.8°F–21.4°F (avg 6.4°F) did not prevent complete forecast failure; cold enough for snow but actual accumulation was zero. Suggests elevation-specific wind/sublimation effects or model domain misalignment rather than thermodynamic limitation.
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